During the inaugural lecture: “The Term Structure of Commodity Futures Prices as a Predictor of Economic Activity”, Dr Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou presented the findings of research conducted jointly with Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro and Athanasios Triantafyllou. The researchers examined the relationship between developments in global commodity markets and changes in economic conditions.
The study covered nine commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, gold, copper and agricultural products, alongside macroeconomic data from advanced and emerging economies. The researchers investigated the extent to which changes in the relationship between futures prices across different maturities could signal future economic trends.
The findings suggest that monitoring developments in commodity markets can provide valuable insights into the future direction of the global economy. Common trends in futures prices across different markets may reflect changes in global demand, helping to forecast economic growth, investment and exports. The indicator developed by the researchers demonstrated greater predictive power for economic activity than selected conventional measures used in macroeconomic analysis.
The initiative of monthly seminars organised by the Faculty helps with knowledge exchange, presentation of recent research findings and development of academic cooperation. The meetings will take place on a regular basis at our campus, bringing together researchers to share their expertise, present their work and strengthen collaboration within the international academic community. The seminar series is coordinated by Krzysztof Beck, PhD.
